Analyzing the Community Center Vote: It’s a win for Proposition 1

Update, Nov. 7:

Some new data obtained this morning puts the No victory farther out of reach.

According to the Elections website, 65% of the Sammamish ballots have already been returned. With this new figure, this means if 100% of eligible voters returned the ballot (which of course won’t happen) and taking into account the down ballot drop off, there are a maximum of 4,662 votes left to come in. (Again, this assumes a 100% voter turnout.) This is added to the 13,320 votes already cast for a total of 17,962 votes.

To achieve a 50.1% majority, 9,009 votes are required. Election Night returns gave the No vote 6,514 votes; it therefore needs 2,495 more votes for 50.1%. This requires winning 53.5% of the remaining votes (and in reality a higher margin at a more realistic 87% total vote and even more at lower percentages).

Ain’t gonna happen.

Original Post:

I’ve had a chance to do some number crunching. Based on historical voting in Sammamish and the 2 point spread from tonight’s results, and projecting likely turnout, I believe the No vote would have to capture about 52% of the outstanding vote to prevail with a 50.1% result. This is a pick up of 3 percentage points from tonight’s result.

I don’t believe this is possible, so I am calling a win for Proposition 1 Yes votes.

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One Response to Analyzing the Community Center Vote: It’s a win for Proposition 1

  1. Vincent Cucinelli says:

    But is it really about winning or loosing or showing city council that a large portion of the resident don’t like their current plan? If there was a more definitive plan in place I feel like the voting would be different and they would have seen the overwhelming support that they were expecting.. I knew it would be close but at the end of the day its still and advisory vote..

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