Our first analysis of last night’s election results for Sammamish City Council is that Christie Malchow and Tom Hornish are the winners over Mark Cross and incumbent Tom Vance.
Ramiro Valderrama faced token opposition from Hank Klein, who dropped out.
Given the wide margins for Malchow and Hornish, reported by King County Elections, their win is clear and unambiguous. (Neither The Sammamish Review nor The Sammamish Reporter wrote this; each merely said Malchow and Hornish were leading.)
Based on voting history since incorporation in 1998, the final voting figures approximately double from Election Night results. Based on this, Sammamish Comment estimates total votes cast in the City Council races should be in the low 10,000 range.
Based on this estimate for the Malchow and Hornish races, Sammamish Comment estimates that Malchow’s opponent, Cross, would have to win just under 69% of the remaining votes to be counted in order to reverse the Election Night results. Hornish’s opponent, Vance, would have to win just over 60% of the remaining vote to defeat Hornish.
Neither is a feasible outcome.
Based on the historical voting history, the final result, which will be certified Nov. 24, is within 1%-2% of the Election Night result.
King County Elections will update the ballot counting every weekday around 4:30pm. Sammamish Comment will post daily updates for the balance of this week to observe the voting trends. The drop-off ballots should be counted this week. The remaining outstanding mail-in ballots will be counted up until certification. The lengthy counting period allows for overseas balloting to arrive (military and ex-pats).
Sammamish Comment will have a full election analysis concurrent with today’s King County Elections update.